How to Spot 10-Year Trends and Build Billion-Dollar Companies — Kevin Ryan
Executive Summary
A Tim Ferriss Show conversation with Kevin Ryan, founder of AlleyCorp and an early leader of DoubleClick, about spotting 10-year trends and building companies. PARTIAL COVERAGE: the episode runs about 76 minutes and the available caption text is cut off, so this summary covers only the first part (his bio, trend spotting, events he hosts, second-order thinking, Gilt, his early career and DoubleClick, and the start of the AlleyCorp model), not the later sections such as recruiting and health. The title and some details come from YouTube metadata. All figures, forecasts and stories are the speakers' own statements, not independently checked, and nothing here is investment advice. Topics are untimed; metadata follows YouTube. Source: https://youtubetotranscript.com/transcript?v=j774AFDJqFg
Key Takeaways
Business crush
Ryan says he starts with an idea he cannot stop thinking about, and if it still sticks after about two weeks he generally does it.
Ten-year trends
He says important companies take about ten years, so he bets on long-term trends and lists past and current ones such as internet advertising, databases, nuclear energy and the creator economy.
Second-order thinking
He asks who supplies a winner and how behaviour changes, and says that logic about falling bandwidth costs meant he should have started something like YouTube in 2003.
Events and trips
He says he hosts events and trips, with seating that mixes people early on, as intellectual nourishment, not direct deal flow.
Gilt lessons
He says Gilt grew to about 500 million dollars of revenue in year four, then brands built their own sites and department stores improved, so it was commoditised and sold for about 250 million dollars.
Early career
He says he worked in banking and Euro Disney operations, ran a division at United Media and built the Dilbert website in 1995, selling the first ads without a price precedent.
DoubleClick and AlleyCorp
He says he joined DoubleClick as about the tenth person, rose to CEO, opened offices in 20-plus countries before the first was profitable, and then built AlleyCorp companies with a partner for about a year each before raising venture money.
The Conversation Breakdown
Business crush
⏱ Untimed topicRyan says he starts with an idea he cannot stop thinking about, and if it still sticks after about two weeks he generally does it.
Ten-year trends
⏱ Untimed topicHe says important companies take about ten years, so he bets on long-term trends and lists past and current ones such as internet advertising, databases, nuclear energy and the creator economy.
Second-order thinking
⏱ Untimed topicHe asks who supplies a winner and how behaviour changes, and says that logic about falling bandwidth costs meant he should have started something like YouTube in 2003.
Events and trips
⏱ Untimed topicHe says he hosts events and trips, with seating that mixes people early on, as intellectual nourishment, not direct deal flow.
Gilt lessons
⏱ Untimed topicHe says Gilt grew to about 500 million dollars of revenue in year four, then brands built their own sites and department stores improved, so it was commoditised and sold for about 250 million dollars.
Early career
⏱ Untimed topicHe says he worked in banking and Euro Disney operations, ran a division at United Media and built the Dilbert website in 1995, selling the first ads without a price precedent.
DoubleClick and AlleyCorp
⏱ Untimed topicHe says he joined DoubleClick as about the tenth person, rose to CEO, opened offices in 20-plus countries before the first was profitable, and then built AlleyCorp companies with a partner for about a year each before raising venture money.
Core Frameworks & Ideas
Ten-year trend test - Ryan's method
List trends likely to last ten years and ask what will exist that does not today.
Second-order effects - Ryan's method
Ask who supplies the winner and how behaviour changes.
Moat or fall - Ryan's Gilt lesson
If you cannot reach a size that gives you a moat, a crowded market can commoditise you.
Actionable Next Steps
- ✓Write a list of trends you believe last ten years and what they imply.
- ✓For one trend, list the suppliers and second-order beneficiaries.
- ✓Decide quickly on small decisions and slow down for large irreversible ones.
- ✓Check the sale prices and revenue figures against public reports.
Notable Quotes
“I start with a business crush”
“10 years is important because to build an important company”
“you've got to bet on a long-term trend”
The One Thing to Remember
Ryan says to bet on trends that will last ten years, think about second-order effects, and make decisions fast.