Nikos Christodoulides on Why India Must Lead What Comes Next | Nikhil Kamath | People by WTF
Executive Summary
Historian-turned-President of Cyprus Nikos Christodoulides argues the post-World War II international system no longer reflects reality and must be updated: expand the UN Security Council starting with India, and build a regional organisation from India through the Gulf to Europe on a positive agenda. He positions Cyprus - EU Council presidency holder, fastest-growing EU economy in early 2026 at 3%, full employment, public debt around 50% of GDP - as India's democratic, predictable gateway into the 450-million-person European market. Along the way: why he is a realist (states always compete), why Europe is building strategic autonomy after Ukraine ('if you want to avoid war, you need to increase your defence budget'), why democracy remains 'the only way' despite its four-to-five-year myopia, why AI-driven job loss is his big worry, and how diplomacy taught him to raise his own issue last.
Key Takeaways
A historian's edge: history repeats itself
Christodoulides credits his academic training - 26 months of mandatory army service after high school in 1991, then studies in the United States - with decisively shaping how he approaches every issue as president. Understanding what happened, he says, is the best way to predict what is going to happen, especially for a small country in a region of great geopolitical importance.
He is a realist: states always compete
Rejecting Fukuyama's 'end of history', he expected the return of an anarchic international system within 15-30 years of the Cold War's collapse - and believes we are witnessing it now. The answer is not despair but frameworks: international institutions under which disagreements get addressed.
Update the post-1945 institutions, starting with the UN Security Council
Today's institutions reflect the realities of 1945 - five permanent members with vetoes. Christodoulides argues India should be the first new permanent member, and that expanding representation is what gives institutions like the UN and World Bank credibility in an interconnected world where a Gulf crisis moves diesel prices in the United States.
His blueprint: a regional organisation from India to Europe
Modelled loosely on the 1975 Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, he proposes institutionalising India-Gulf-Middle East-Europe ties - trade, economy, shared positions on international issues - on a 'positive agenda', not against any third country. Membership would require respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the visible benefits would attract holdouts.
Cyprus pitches itself as India's gateway to Europe
An Indian business investing in Cyprus gets immediate access to the EU's 450-million-person market plus the Greater Middle East, inside a common-law, predictable, democratic country. He cites Cyprus's 3% growth in Q1 2026 (highest in Europe), full employment, public debt around 50% of GDP, and a 15,000-strong Indian community.
Europe's rearmament is about deterrence, not war
Pressed on whether rising defence budgets create a more violent world, he answers: 'if you want to avoid war, you need to increase your defence budget.' Ukraine taught Europe it cannot depend on the Americans; strategic autonomy in defence, trade and economy is now the goal - which, he adds, also makes Europe more useful to the US.
Diplomacy lesson: raise your own issue last
As a small-country diplomat seeking support on Cyprus's number one national issue - Turkey's occupation of 37% of its territory - he learned that opening with your own problem fails. First know the other side's challenges, align your interests with theirs, and only then raise your issue. And never open all your cards from the beginning.
The Conversation Breakdown
The historian who became president
⏱ Untimed topicNikhil opens by noting Nikos is not a politician who knows history but a historian who became President of Cyprus - the bridge between Europe and the Middle East. Nikos describes his daily operating rhythm: up at 5:30, gym at 6, a 45-minute Mediterranean power nap early afternoon, then work until ten or eleven.
History repeats itself
⏱ Untimed topicFrom his US studies and his books on post-World War II history, Nikos explains his realism: against Fukuyama's 'end of history', states always compete for leadership, and the anarchic international system was always coming back. Cyprus - a country under Turkish occupation balancing different interests - feels this daily.
Why India, why now
⏱ Untimed topicNikos calls India the biggest democracy, seventh-biggest country and fourth-biggest economy, says Cyprus and India 'see eye-to-eye on almost all international issues', and describes a new page in relations after PM Modi's June visit - the first in 22 years. He argues India should be the first new permanent UN Security Council member and praises the EU-India free trade agreement reached under Cyprus's Council presidency as 'much more than an economic and trade agreement... a strategic agreement'.
A new regional architecture on a positive agenda
⏱ Untimed topicHis proposal: a regional organisation connecting India, the Gulf, the Middle East and Europe - trade, economy, shared international positions - explicitly not aimed at any third country. Countries that want in must respect sovereignty and territorial integrity; the benefits of membership should make joining attractive to holdouts. Cyprus, he says, is the natural entry point and gateway.
Democracy, Thucydides and the challenger problem
⏱ Untimed topicAsked if democracy is the best bridge to economic well-being, Nikos answers: 'It's the only way.' They discuss social media as a threat to democratic trust, and the Thucydides trap - wars driven by structure, pride and ego when a challenger rises. Nikos's answer to the trap is the same: international institutions and frameworks to address threats and perceptions.
Left, right and Deng Xiaoping's pivot
⏱ Untimed topicNikos places himself centre-right: a believer in free economy - 'if you work much more than I do, you should have more' - but with a state's duty to guarantee equal education and health to every citizen. Nikhil offers Deng Xiaoping as the master of pragmatic change: he 'turned right without saying he turned right', bookending speeches with praise for Mao. Nikos agrees politicians must not be dogmatic - be brave enough to say the reality is different and follow a different path.
Power, loneliness and the next generations
⏱ Untimed topicThe transition from reading archival minutes to sitting in the meeting - where raised voices and body language don't appear in any record - was his first shock. On power: 'It's a very lonely road.' His rule is to decide thinking of the next generations, not the next elections, quoting Napoleon: 'History is generally written by the winners of tomorrow.' He closes with the Cyprus pitch to Indian business, a memory of Indira Gandhi's 1982-83 visit when schoolchildren lined the streets, and an open invitation to repeat the interview on a Cypriot beach.
Core Frameworks & Ideas
Positive-agenda coalition building
Design alliances around a positive agenda rather than against a third country. Benefits of membership do the recruiting: outsiders see what participants gain and must meet the rules (respect sovereignty, territorial integrity) to join.
Update institutions or lose them
Institutions built for 1945 lose validity unless they reflect today's reality. His test: can the UN Security Council claim relevance while India, Brazil and others are outside it? Credibility requires updating - otherwise states go unilateral and everyone ends in a lose-lose.
Next generations, not next elections
The historian's decision frame for power: pleasing voters wins tomorrow's headlines and fails the 50-year book. Accept that real change often lands after you leave office, define a clear vision, and be specific - you cannot change everything.
Actionable Next Steps
- ✓In your next negotiation, list the other side's three biggest challenges before your own ask - and raise your issue last.
- ✓When building any alliance (team, partnership, community), frame it around a positive agenda others can join, not a shared enemy.
- ✓For any institution you run or rely on, ask whether its rules still reflect today's reality - and name one concrete update that would restore its credibility.
- ✓Before a big decision, write two verdicts: how it reads in tomorrow's news versus how it reads in a history book in 50 years; optimise for the second.
Notable Quotes
“The easiest thing is to start a war. The most difficult is to finish the war.”
“you need to decide every day, you need to think the next generations and not the next elections.”
“you are here in order to change your country, not to please the voters the next day”
The One Thing to Remember
Decide for the next generations, not the next elections - power means accepting that the changes you start will probably arrive after you leave office, and history will grade you, not tomorrow's newspapers.